Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

76.03 – 67.45

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

60 – 149

Prediction missed · off by 48.8 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 205.2 ±11

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 54.29Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5682Equus Engineering

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 4.36Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2969Aftermath

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 17.38Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 301.3 ±10.4

7492Turbo Torque

Season APEX 124.9Event APEX 54.29Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4295Hudson Stingers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 4.36Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8769G.O.R.T.s

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 8.8Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9418, 5682, 2969

/ 100 compat

Projected

76 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9418, 5682, 2969

Auto

17.3 22%

Teleop

41.1 53%

Endgame

19.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7492, 4295, 8769

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7492, 4295, 8769

Auto

16.7 23%

Teleop

44.9 61%

Endgame

12.0 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score76pts

Blue projected score67.5pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.6
Score range: 44–99
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 209 vs event baseline 130.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

205.2Season APEX301.3

17.3Auto16.7

41.1Teleop44.9

19.2Endgame12

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	29
teleop	21	88
endgame	26	32
foul	0	0
total	60	149

Result

Final score

60 – 149

Prediction missed · off by 48.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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