Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

172.19 – 97.4

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

196 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 36.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 457.3 ±9.8

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 70.75Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7506WILDCARDS

Season APEX 151.2Event APEX 56.6Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4295Hudson Stingers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 44.84Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 217.6 ±11

5682Equus Engineering

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 30.54Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5417Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 23.97Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3679rattlers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 42.89Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10014, 7506, 4295

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10014, 7506, 4295

Auto

47.6 28%

Teleop

82.4 48%

Endgame

39.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5682, 5417, 3679

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5682, 5417, 3679

Auto

24.1 26%

Teleop

41.2 44%

Endgame

27.6 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score172.2pts

Blue projected score97.4pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 74.8
Score range: 74–195
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 342 vs event baseline 129.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

457.3Season APEX217.6

47.6Auto24.1

82.4Teleop41.2

39.9Endgame27.6

6Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	32
teleop	70	53
endgame	64	56
foul	0	5
total	196	146

Result

Final score

196 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 36.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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