Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

76.36 – 50.15

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

97 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 20.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.7 ±11.7

3282Dallas Robo Tigers

Season APEX 57.4Event APEX -5.04Rank 24Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8370Glow With The Flow

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 27.68Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 53.72Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 119.8 ±11.6

11469Ignis Mechanica

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 19.83Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2969Aftermath

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 18.82Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2950Devastators

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX 11.5Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3282, 8370, 9418

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3282, 8370, 9418

Auto

15.6 21%

Teleop

27.7 38%

Endgame

29.8 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11469, 2969, 2950

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11469, 2969, 2950

Auto

17.6 37%

Teleop

10.1 21%

Endgame

19.5 41%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score76.4pts

Blue projected score50.2pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.2
Score range: 26–100
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 126 vs event baseline 131.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218.7Season APEX119.8

15.6Auto17.6

27.7Teleop10.1

29.8Endgame19.5

33Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	9
teleop	55	13
endgame	20	7
foul	0	0
total	97	29

Result

Final score

97 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 20.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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