Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

85.87 – 110.28

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

97 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 35.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 204.6 ±11.7

10994SSES Phenoms

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 10.23Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8769G.O.R.T.s

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 57.58Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8528AstroChimps

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 18.06Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318.9 ±11.7

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 93.19Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5613ThunderDogs

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 9.25Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5866Fe [Iron] Tigers

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 7.84Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10994, 8769, 8528

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10994, 8769, 8528

Auto

16.8 20%

Teleop

46.1 56%

Endgame

19.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2881, 5613, 5866

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2881, 5613, 5866

Auto

22.3 21%

Teleop

54.8 52%

Endgame

28.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score85.9pts

Blue projected score110.3pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.4
Score range: 63–133
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 268 vs event baseline 129.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

204.6Season APEX318.9

16.8Auto22.3

46.1Teleop54.8

19.6Endgame28.1

19Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	34
teleop	32	98
endgame	33	39
foul	10	0
total	97	171

Result

Final score

97 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 35.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree