Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

58 – 204.9

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

95 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.2 ±11.7

3282Dallas Robo Tigers

Season APEX 57.4Event APEX -7.74Rank 24Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4295Hudson Stingers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 43.28Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5417Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 22.46Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 401.4 ±10

2950Devastators

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX 12.42Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8370Glow With The Flow

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 27.9Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 164.58Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3282, 4295, 5417

/ 100 compat

Projected

58 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3282, 4295, 5417

Auto

17.6 33%

Teleop

13.7 26%

Endgame

22.1 41%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2950, 8370, 6369

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2950, 8370, 6369

Auto

47.2 24%

Teleop

104.2 52%

Endgame

49.2 25%

Strengths

· 6369 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.66 · Blue 2.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score58pts

Blue projected score204.9pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -146.9
Score range: 35–228
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 312 vs event baseline 129.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218.2Season APEX401.4

17.6Auto47.2

13.7Teleop104.2

22.1Endgame49.2

22Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	54
teleop	19	85
endgame	33	78
foul	5	0
total	95	217

Result

Final score

95 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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