Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

112.87 – 105.34

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

107 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 17.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 244.1 ±11.6

7506WILDCARDS

Season APEX 151.2Event APEX 59.18Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5682Equus Engineering

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 31.56Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11469Ignis Mechanica

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 22.13Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 283.2 ±11.1

9121Mavericks

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 7.48Rank 25Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 69.37Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5788Eagle Spec Ops

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 28.49Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7506, 5682, 11469

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7506, 5682, 11469

Auto

21.2 19%

Teleop

60.5 55%

Endgame

28.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9121, 1477, 5788

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9121, 1477, 5788

Auto

29.1 27%

Teleop

49.6 46%

Endgame

28.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112.9pts

Blue projected score105.3pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.5
Score range: 82–136
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 184 vs event baseline 130.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

244.1Season APEX283.2

21.2Auto29.1

60.5Teleop49.6

28.7Endgame28.3

3Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	20
teleop	59	43
endgame	28	14
foul	5	0
total	107	77

Result

Final score

107 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 17.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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