Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

94.49 – 45.02

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

158 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 42.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 215.4 ±11.7

3679rattlers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 39.97Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5866Fe [Iron] Tigers

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 2.53Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8769G.O.R.T.s

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 51.99Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214.9 ±11

11200Panther Prime

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX -16.25Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 53.73Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5613ThunderDogs

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 7.54Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3679, 5866, 8769

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3679, 5866, 8769

Auto

28.1 31%

Teleop

41.8 46%

Endgame

21.3 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11200, 9418, 5613

/ 100 compat

Projected

45 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11200, 9418, 5613

Auto

9.2 23%

Teleop

11.8 29%

Endgame

19.2 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score94.5pts

Blue projected score45pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 49.5
Score range: 22–117
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 225 vs event baseline 130.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

215.4Season APEX214.9

28.1Auto9.2

41.8Teleop11.8

21.3Endgame19.2

1Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	15
teleop	91	34
endgame	37	18
foul	5	0
total	158	67

Result

Final score

158 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 42.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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