Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

184.99 – 236.18

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

196 – 320

Prediction correct · off by 47.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 411 ±9.8

10994SSES Phenoms

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 9.79Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7492Turbo Torque

Season APEX 124.9Event APEX 82.54Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 92.66Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 577.2 ±8.8

2969Aftermath

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 13.21Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 65.33Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 157.64Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10994, 7492, 2881

/ 100 compat

Projected

185 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10994, 7492, 2881

Auto

30.8 17%

Teleop

103.8 56%

Endgame

51.1 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2969, 10014, 6369

/ 100 compat

Projected

236.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2969, 10014, 6369

Auto

61.4 26%

Teleop

120.9 51%

Endgame

56.0 23%

Strengths

· 6369 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score185pts

Blue projected score236.2pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.2
Score range: 162–259
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 516 vs event baseline 127.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

411Season APEX577.2

30.8Auto61.4

103.8Teleop120.9

51.1Endgame56

44Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	77
teleop	94	169
endgame	43	74
foul	30	0
total	196	320

Result

Final score

196 – 320

Prediction correct · off by 47.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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