Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

184.09 – 128.32

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

223 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 26.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 414.5 ±10.5

7506WILDCARDS

Season APEX 151.2Event APEX 55.61Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2950Devastators

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX 9.17Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2848Rangers

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 119.31Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 324.7 ±11.7

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 73.2Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5682Equus Engineering

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 34.6Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8528AstroChimps

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 20.52Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7506, 2950, 2848

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7506, 2950, 2848

Auto

26.9 15%

Teleop

93.5 52%

Endgame

58.6 33%

Strengths

· 2848 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1477, 5682, 8528

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1477, 5682, 8528

Auto

24.8 20%

Teleop

70.0 56%

Endgame

30.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.88 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score184.1pts

Blue projected score128.3pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55.8
Score range: 105–207
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 338 vs event baseline 126.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

414.5Season APEX324.7

26.9Auto24.8

93.5Teleop70

58.6Endgame30.4

25Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	35
teleop	133	52
endgame	49	28
foul	0	0
total	223	115

Result

Final score

223 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 26.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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