Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

63.87 – 105.55

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

66 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 5.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 156.9 ±11.6

5613ThunderDogs

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 8.9Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4295Hudson Stingers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 45.55Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9121Mavericks

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 9.42Rank 25Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 267.5 ±11.7

8769G.O.R.T.s

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 53.6Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 55.91Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3282Dallas Robo Tigers

Season APEX 57.4Event APEX -3.96Rank 24Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5613, 4295, 9121

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5613, 4295, 9121

Auto

15.4 25%

Teleop

22.7 37%

Endgame

23.9 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8769, 9418, 3282

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8769, 9418, 3282

Auto

17.3 17%

Teleop

52.2 51%

Endgame

32.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.08 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score63.9pts

Blue projected score105.6pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.7
Score range: 41–129
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 163 vs event baseline 127.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

156.9Season APEX267.5

15.4Auto17.3

22.7Teleop52.2

23.9Endgame32.6

10Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	18
teleop	5	41
endgame	29	38
foul	0	0
total	66	97

Result

Final score

66 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 5.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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