Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

241.97 – 49.22

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

248 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 25.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 472.9 ±10.8

5866Fe [Iron] Tigers

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 3.11Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7492Turbo Torque

Season APEX 124.9Event APEX 82.28Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 156.58Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 173.9 ±10.4

2969Aftermath

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 7.57Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3679rattlers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 35.77Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10994SSES Phenoms

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 5.88Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5866, 7492, 6369

/ 100 compat

Projected

242 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5866, 7492, 6369

Auto

51.6 22%

Teleop

128.8 54%

Endgame

57.0 24%

Strengths

· 6369 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2969, 3679, 10994

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.2 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2969, 3679, 10994

Auto

19.8 39%

Teleop

13.7 27%

Endgame

17.2 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.38 · Blue 0.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score242pts

Blue projected score49.2pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 192.8
Score range: 26–265
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 343 vs event baseline 126.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

472.9Season APEX173.9

51.6Auto19.8

128.8Teleop13.7

57Endgame17.2

87Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	30
teleop	153	21
endgame	52	44
foul	0	0
total	248	95

Result

Final score

248 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 25.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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