Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

49.95 – 189.18

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 5.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 179.3 ±12.2

2950Devastators

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX 11.3Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5417Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 24.35Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8528AstroChimps

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 14.3Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.8 ±10.4

3679rattlers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 49.03Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 54.76Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7492Turbo Torque

Season APEX 124.9Event APEX 85.39Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2950, 5417, 8528

/ 100 compat

Projected

50 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2950, 5417, 8528

Auto

18.2 45%

Teleop

11.4 28%

Endgame

11.1 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3679, 9418, 7492

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3679, 9418, 7492

Auto

31.4 17%

Teleop

95.9 53%

Endgame

54.5 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.72 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score50pts

Blue projected score189.2pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -139.2
Score range: 25–214
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 229 vs event baseline 139.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

179.3Season APEX323.8

18.2Auto31.4

11.4Teleop95.9

11.1Endgame54.5

26Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	50
teleop	7	109
endgame	4	31
foul	15	0
total	39	190

Result

Final score

39 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 5.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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