Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

172.34 – 116

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

197 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 38.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 359.2 ±10.5

2950Devastators

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX 6.04Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8769G.O.R.T.s

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 49.52Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2848Rangers

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 116.78Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 333.5 ±10.5

5417Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 29.16Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 71.14Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9121Mavericks

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 15.7Rank 25Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2950, 8769, 2848

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2950, 8769, 2848

Auto

30.6 18%

Teleop

83.4 50%

Endgame

54.4 32%

Strengths

· 2848 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5417, 10014, 9121

/ 100 compat

Projected

116 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5417, 10014, 9121

Auto

35.7 31%

Teleop

57.0 50%

Endgame

21.5 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score172.3pts

Blue projected score116pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 56.3
Score range: 93–195
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 260 vs event baseline 127.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

359.2Season APEX333.5

30.6Auto35.7

83.4Teleop57

54.4Endgame21.5

31Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	18
teleop	117	24
endgame	59	21
foul	0	0
total	197	63

Result

Final score

197 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 38.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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