Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

67.89 – 91.65

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

43 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 17.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 257.4 ±12.2

5613ThunderDogs

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 12.57Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3282Dallas Robo Tigers

Season APEX 57.4Event APEX -1.43Rank 24Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7506WILDCARDS

Season APEX 151.2Event APEX 56.75Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 198.1 ±11.7

7492Turbo Torque

Season APEX 124.9Event APEX 82.36Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2969Aftermath

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 6.46Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5866Fe [Iron] Tigers

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 2.83Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5613, 3282, 7506

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5613, 3282, 7506

Auto

10.1 16%

Teleop

30.6 47%

Endgame

23.8 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7492, 2969, 5866

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7492, 2969, 5866

Auto

15.9 18%

Teleop

50.5 58%

Endgame

20.5 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score67.9pts

Blue projected score91.6pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.8
Score range: 45–115
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 125 vs event baseline 129.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

257.4Season APEX198.1

10.1Auto15.9

30.6Teleop50.5

23.8Endgame20.5

27Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	29
teleop	12	26
endgame	24	27
foul	0	0
total	43	82

Result

Final score

43 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 17.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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