Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

147.62 – 80.35

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

129 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 32.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 288.5 ±11

7506WILDCARDS

Season APEX 151.2Event APEX 56.46Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5788Eagle Spec Ops

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 39.41Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8769G.O.R.T.s

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 51.75Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 333.8 ±11.7

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 91.72Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2950Devastators

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX 0.1Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3282Dallas Robo Tigers

Season APEX 57.4Event APEX -11.47Rank 24Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7506, 5788, 8769

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7506, 5788, 8769

Auto

31.2 21%

Teleop

85.5 59%

Endgame

29.2 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2881, 2950, 3282

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2881, 2950, 3282

Auto

24.8 32%

Teleop

24.4 32%

Endgame

27.7 36%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score147.6pts

Blue projected score80.4pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67.3
Score range: 57–171
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 256 vs event baseline 129.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

288.5Season APEX333.8

31.2Auto24.8

85.5Teleop24.4

29.2Endgame27.7

11Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	15
teleop	67	62
endgame	36	45
foul	0	5
total	129	127

Result

Final score

129 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 32.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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