Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

217.02 – 136.75

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

286 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 39.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 485.3 ±10.8

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 156.52Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8528AstroChimps

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 20.23Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 40.27Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 333.1 ±9.8

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 86.07Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4295Hudson Stingers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 42.63Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2969Aftermath

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 8.05Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6369, 8528, 9418

/ 100 compat

Projected

217 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6369, 8528, 9418

Auto

48.6 23%

Teleop

104.6 49%

Endgame

59.5 28%

Strengths

· 6369 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1477, 4295, 2969

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1477, 4295, 2969

Auto

34.9 25%

Teleop

65.7 48%

Endgame

36.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.92 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score217pts

Blue projected score136.8pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80.3
Score range: 114–240
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 412 vs event baseline 126.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

485.3Season APEX333.1

48.6Auto34.9

104.6Teleop65.7

59.5Endgame36.7

81Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	29
teleop	174	52
endgame	60	40
foul	0	5
total	286	126

Result

Final score

286 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 39.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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