Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

115.67 – 28.16

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

81 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 34.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 362.2 ±9.8

11200Panther Prime

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX -14.44Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3679rattlers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 51.49Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 78.62Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 118.7 ±11.6

10994SSES Phenoms

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 5.5Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9121Mavericks

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 10.22Rank 25Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11469Ignis Mechanica

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 12.44Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11200, 3679, 10014

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11200, 3679, 10014

Auto

39.6 36%

Teleop

40.5 36%

Endgame

31.4 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10994, 9121, 11469

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10994, 9121, 11469

Auto

8.0 25%

Teleop

10.2 32%

Endgame

13.4 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.88 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score115.7pts

Blue projected score28.2pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.5
Score range: 5–139
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 143 vs event baseline 128.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

362.2Season APEX118.7

39.6Auto8

40.5Teleop10.2

31.4Endgame13.4

16Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	14
teleop	46	39
endgame	0	9
foul	0	0
total	81	62

Result

Final score

81 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 34.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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