Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

302.02 – 125.46

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

192 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 61.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 587.3 ±8.8

2848Rangers

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 133.98Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 173.49Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11200Panther Prime

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX -5.45Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 274.7 ±11

8769G.O.R.T.s

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 59.57Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9121Mavericks

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 7.21Rank 25Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7506WILDCARDS

Season APEX 151.2Event APEX 58.68Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2848, 6369, 11200

/ 100 compat

Projected

302 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2848, 6369, 11200

Auto

50.6 17%

Teleop

177.4 59%

Endgame

75.0 25%

Strengths

· 6369 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8769, 9121, 7506

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.5 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8769, 9121, 7506

Auto

24.3 20%

Teleop

68.9 56%

Endgame

29.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.29 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score302pts

Blue projected score125.5pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 176.6
Score range: 100–327
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 305 vs event baseline 139.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

587.3Season APEX274.7

50.6Auto24.3

177.4Teleop68.9

75Endgame29.4

20Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	24
teleop	76	66
endgame	74	23
foul	0	0
total	192	113

Result

Final score

192 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 61.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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