Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

123.86 – 0

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

95 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 321.9 ±11.2

2969Aftermath

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 14.13Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 83.93Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8528AstroChimps

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 25.8Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 125.3 ±12.7

11469Ignis Mechanica

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 8.76Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3282Dallas Robo Tigers

Season APEX 57.4Event APEX -18.72Rank 24Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9121Mavericks

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 3.33Rank 25Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2969, 10014, 8528

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2969, 10014, 8528

Auto

30.3 25%

Teleop

55.9 46%

Endgame

35.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11469, 3282, 9121

/ 100 compat

Projected

-6.6 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11469, 3282, 9121

Auto

9.2 100%

Teleop

-11.2 0%

Endgame

2.5 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.04 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score123.9pts

Blue projected score-6.6pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 123.9
Score range: -23–147
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 136 vs event baseline 127.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

321.9Season APEX125.3

30.3Auto9.2

55.9Teleop-11.2

35.4Endgame2.5

25Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	15
teleop	48	13
endgame	13	8
foul	0	5
total	95	41

Result

Final score

95 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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