Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

32.7 – 196.41

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

53 – 286

Prediction correct · off by 54.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 167 ±11.7

11200Panther Prime

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX -17.19Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5866Fe [Iron] Tigers

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 12.28Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5417Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 37.61Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 407.2 ±10.7

5788Eagle Spec Ops

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 24.82Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 149.08Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5682Equus Engineering

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 22.51Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11200, 5866, 5417

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.7 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11200, 5866, 5417

Auto

10.5 34%

Teleop

11.0 36%

Endgame

9.0 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5788, 6369, 5682

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5788, 6369, 5682

Auto

49.9 26%

Teleop

104.7 54%

Endgame

41.0 21%

Strengths

· 6369 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.6 · Blue 2.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score32.7pts

Blue projected score196.4pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -163.7
Score range: 10–219
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 339 vs event baseline 125.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

167Season APEX407.2

10.5Auto49.9

11Teleop104.7

9Endgame41

49Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	49
teleop	3	150
endgame	6	87
foul	30	0
total	53	286

Result

Final score

53 – 286

Prediction correct · off by 54.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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