Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

125.93 – 136.05

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

118 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 8.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 246 ±10.4

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 34.63Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3679rattlers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 61.73Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8370Glow With The Flow

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 29.57Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 321.8 ±10.5

2848Rangers

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 114.81Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10994SSES Phenoms

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 14.29Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5613ThunderDogs

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 6.95Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9418, 3679, 8370

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9418, 3679, 8370

Auto

33.8 28%

Teleop

52.6 44%

Endgame

34.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2848, 10994, 5613

/ 100 compat

Projected

136 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2848, 10994, 5613

Auto

22.5 17%

Teleop

63.9 48%

Endgame

47.7 36%

Strengths

· 2848 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score125.9pts

Blue projected score136pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.1
Score range: 103–159
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 245 vs event baseline 125.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

246Season APEX321.8

33.8Auto22.5

52.6Teleop63.9

34.1Endgame47.7

54Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	8
teleop	45	67
endgame	41	52
foul	10	0
total	118	127

Result

Final score

118 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 8.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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