Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

113.9 – 250.89

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

238 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 66.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 390.8 ±10.5

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 65.59Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11469Ignis Mechanica

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX -14.45Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7492Turbo Torque

Season APEX 124.9Event APEX 62.76Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 545.4 ±9.3

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 97.72Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8769G.O.R.T.s

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 68.18Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 84.99Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10014, 11469, 7492

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10014, 11469, 7492

Auto

32.2 27%

Teleop

57.1 48%

Endgame

30.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2881, 8769, 1477

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2881, 8769, 1477

Auto

45.5 18%

Teleop

138.0 56%

Endgame

62.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score113.9pts

Blue projected score250.9pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -137
Score range: 92–273
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 480 vs event baseline 121.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

390.8Season APEX545.4

32.2Auto45.5

57.1Teleop138

30.8Endgame62.7

62Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	54
teleop	126	128
endgame	63	60
foul	5	0
total	238	242

Result

Final score

238 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 66.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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