Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.35 – 197.01

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

31 – 237

Prediction correct · off by 33.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 103.8 ±12.7

9121Mavericks

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 8.23Rank 25Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5788Eagle Spec Ops

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 35.72Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5866Fe [Iron] Tigers

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 13.4Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 387.4 ±9.8

3679rattlers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 59.05Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2848Rangers

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 114.59Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4295Hudson Stingers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 23.37Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9121, 5788, 5866

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.4 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9121, 5788, 5866

Auto

13.3 22%

Teleop

33.8 56%

Endgame

13.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3679, 2848, 4295

/ 100 compat

Projected

197 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3679, 2848, 4295

Auto

58.2 29%

Teleop

87.4 44%

Endgame

51.9 26%

Strengths

· 2848 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.67 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score57.4pts

Blue projected score197pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -139.7
Score range: 35–219
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 268 vs event baseline 123.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

103.8Season APEX387.4

13.3Auto58.2

33.8Teleop87.4

13.3Endgame51.9

73Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	32
teleop	9	117
endgame	2	78
foul	0	10
total	31	237

Result

Final score

31 – 237

Prediction correct · off by 33.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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