Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

177.68 – 46.67

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

212 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 22 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 409.1 ±10

8370Glow With The Flow

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 31.28Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5613ThunderDogs

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 8.26Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 138.14Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 144.5 ±11.6

5682Equus Engineering

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 28.17Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2950Devastators

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX 2.02Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10994SSES Phenoms

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 16.48Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8370, 5613, 6369

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8370, 5613, 6369

Auto

40.6 23%

Teleop

76.2 44%

Endgame

56.0 32%

Strengths

· 6369 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5682, 2950, 10994

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5682, 2950, 10994

Auto

7.8 18%

Teleop

22.0 51%

Endgame

13.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.17 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score177.7pts

Blue projected score46.7pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 131
Score range: 25–200
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 249 vs event baseline 123.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

409.1Season APEX144.5

40.6Auto7.8

76.2Teleop22

56Endgame13.1

117Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	15
teleop	118	7
endgame	31	15
foul	5	0
total	212	37

Result

Final score

212 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 22 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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