Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

123.22 – 102.41

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

24 – 156

Prediction missed · off by 76.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 333 ±11.7

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 113.92Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11469Ignis Mechanica

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 8.03Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3282Dallas Robo Tigers

Season APEX 57.4Event APEX 1.27Rank 24Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 345.7 ±10.4

5417Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 24.91Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7506WILDCARDS

Season APEX 151.2Event APEX 45.86Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 31.64Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2881, 11469, 3282

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2881, 11469, 3282

Auto

28.3 22%

Teleop

61.8 49%

Endgame

37.3 29%

Strengths

· 2881 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5417, 7506, 9418

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5417, 7506, 9418

Auto

23.7 25%

Teleop

49.5 52%

Endgame

22.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score123.2pts

Blue projected score102.4pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.8
Score range: 79–146
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 180 vs event baseline 125.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

333Season APEX345.7

28.3Auto23.7

61.8Teleop49.5

37.3Endgame22.6

15Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	22
teleop	7	79
endgame	6	45
foul	0	10
total	24	156

Result

Final score

24 – 156

Prediction missed · off by 76.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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