Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

158.55 – 47.73

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

156 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 12.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 302 ±10.5

5788Eagle Spec Ops

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 34.28Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2969Aftermath

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 9.06Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2848Rangers

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 115.21Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 217.1 ±10.4

4295Hudson Stingers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 10.6Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3679rattlers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 52.74Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11200Panther Prime

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX -15.61Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5788, 2969, 2848

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5788, 2969, 2848

Auto

30.5 19%

Teleop

75.0 47%

Endgame

55.3 34%

Strengths

· 2848 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4295, 3679, 11200

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4295, 3679, 11200

Auto

21.1 40%

Teleop

21.6 41%

Endgame

10.5 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.05 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score158.6pts

Blue projected score47.7pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 110.8
Score range: 25–182
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 226 vs event baseline 125.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

302Season APEX217.1

30.5Auto21.1

75Teleop21.6

55.3Endgame10.5

97Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	36
teleop	81	11
endgame	30	18
foul	0	5
total	156	70

Result

Final score

156 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 12.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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