Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

71.61 – 151.66

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

119 – 278

Prediction correct · off by 86.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 231.6 ±12.2

7492Turbo Torque

Season APEX 124.9Event APEX 67.35Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8528AstroChimps

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 5.66Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5613ThunderDogs

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX -1.4Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 461.7 ±10

8769G.O.R.T.s

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 41.14Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 110.43Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5682Equus Engineering

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 0.09Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7492, 8528, 5613

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7492, 8528, 5613

Auto

11.6 16%

Teleop

54.2 73%

Endgame

8.1 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8769, 6369, 5682

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8769, 6369, 5682

Auto

38.4 26%

Teleop

63.5 43%

Endgame

47.2 32%

Strengths

· 6369 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.96 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score71.6pts

Blue projected score151.7pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -80
Score range: 50–174
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 397 vs event baseline 121.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

231.6Season APEX461.7

11.6Auto38.4

54.2Teleop63.5

8.1Endgame47.2

88Consistency129

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	50
teleop	38	158
endgame	48	60
foul	15	10
total	119	278

Result

Final score

119 – 278

Prediction correct · off by 86.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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