Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

85.13 – 8.8

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

79 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 16.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 172.5 ±11

5788Eagle Spec Ops

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 35.99Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5417Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 30.03Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10994SSES Phenoms

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 19.11Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 117.9 ±11

9121Mavericks

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 17.15Rank 25Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11200Panther Prime

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX -11.1Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2969Aftermath

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 2.75Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5788, 5417, 10994

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5788, 5417, 10994

Auto

8.7 11%

Teleop

45.5 56%

Endgame

26.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9121, 11200, 2969

/ 100 compat

Projected

8.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9121, 11200, 2969

Auto

4.0 25%

Teleop

-7.5 0%

Endgame

19.5 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.86 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score85.1pts

Blue projected score8.8pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 76.3
Score range: -13–107
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 114 vs event baseline 124.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

172.5Season APEX117.9

8.7Auto4

45.5Teleop-7.5

26.9Endgame19.5

94Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	8
teleop	37	18
endgame	27	9
foul	0	0
total	79	35

Result

Final score

79 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 16.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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