Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

175.5 – 79.3

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

293 – 16

Prediction correct · off by 90.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 662 ±8.7

2848Rangers

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 100.84Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 43.92Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 30.74Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 150.1 ±13.9

8528AstroChimps

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 23.93Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5866Fe [Iron] Tigers

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 16.83Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3282Dallas Robo Tigers

Season APEX 57.4Event APEX 38.54Rank 24Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2848, 1477, 10014

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2848, 1477, 10014

Auto

35.7 20%

Teleop

81.7 47%

Endgame

57.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8528, 5866, 3282

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8528, 5866, 3282

Auto

29.4 42%

Teleop

20.3 29%

Endgame

20.4 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.09 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score175.5pts

Blue projected score79.3pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 96.2
Score range: 57–198
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 309 vs event baseline 124.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

662Season APEX150.1

35.7Auto29.4

81.7Teleop20.3

57.2Endgame20.4

164Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	4
teleop	148	12
endgame	74	0
foul	0	0
total	293	16

Result

Final score

293 – 16

Prediction correct · off by 90.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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