Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

159.65 – 91.79

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

165 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 10.3 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 317.5 ±11

7506WILDCARDS

Season APEX 151.2Event APEX 37.21Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7492Turbo Torque

Season APEX 124.9Event APEX 72.46Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5788Eagle Spec Ops

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 49.98Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 390.6 ±9.8

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 42.54Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10994SSES Phenoms

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 16.84Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 32.41Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7506, 7492, 5788

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7506, 7492, 5788

Auto

29.4 19%

Teleop

90.9 60%

Endgame

30.7 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9418, 10994, 10014

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9418, 10994, 10014

Auto

23.9 26%

Teleop

50.4 55%

Endgame

17.3 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.93 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score159.6pts

Blue projected score91.8pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67.9
Score range: 70–182
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 272 vs event baseline 123.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

317.5Season APEX390.6

29.4Auto23.9

90.9Teleop50.4

30.7Endgame17.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	17
teleop	102	46
endgame	35	44
foul	0	0
total	165	107

Result

Final score

165 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 10.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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