Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

137.36 – 100.83

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

151 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 22.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 315.1 ±10.5

2969Aftermath

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 13.16Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5788Eagle Spec Ops

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 23.8Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 100.4Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 335.6 ±11.7

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 74.92Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3282Dallas Robo Tigers

Season APEX 57.4Event APEX -4.45Rank 24Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5682Equus Engineering

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 30.36Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2969, 5788, 2881

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2969, 5788, 2881

Auto

33.6 25%

Teleop

70.3 51%

Endgame

32.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10014, 3282, 5682

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10014, 3282, 5682

Auto

27.2 27%

Teleop

43.0 42%

Endgame

31.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score137.4pts

Blue projected score100.8pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.5
Score range: 76–162
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 220 vs event baseline 139.2.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

315.1Season APEX335.6

33.6Auto27.2

70.3Teleop43

32.9Endgame31.5

9Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	26
teleop	81	26
endgame	50	17
foul	0	0
total	151	69

Result

Final score

151 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 22.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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