Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

294.92 – 197.19

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

356 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 71.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 587.3 ±8.8

2848Rangers

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 131.37Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11200Panther Prime

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX -7.59Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 171.14Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 511.7 ±9.3

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 78.02Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 103.41Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10994SSES Phenoms

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 15.76Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2848, 11200, 6369

/ 100 compat

Projected

294.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2848, 11200, 6369

Auto

47.9 16%

Teleop

172.4 58%

Endgame

75.6 26%

Strengths

· 6369 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10014, 2881, 10994

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10014, 2881, 10994

Auto

42.2 22%

Teleop

101.6 54%

Endgame

45.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.04 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score294.9pts

Blue projected score197.2pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 97.7
Score range: 172–320
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 472 vs event baseline 137.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

587.3Season APEX511.7

47.9Auto42.2

172.4Teleop101.6

75.6Endgame45.7

25Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	40
teleop	214	29
endgame	69	32
foul	0	15
total	356	116

Result

Final score

356 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 71.1 pts

Match videos

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