Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

63.48 – 54.54

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

43 – 84

Prediction missed · off by 25 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 253.9 ±11.6

6974Zia Robotics

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 20.67Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1745The P-51 Mustangs

Season APEX 104Event APEX 18.89Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3481Bronc Botz

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 23.92Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 174.7 ±11

8507Jagwire Robotics

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX 11.38Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9444Perseverance

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 25.71Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8732Trinity Force

Season APEX 30.6Event APEX 17.45Rank 15Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6974, 1745, 3481

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6974, 1745, 3481

Auto

21.0 34%

Teleop

19.8 32%

Endgame

21.4 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8507, 9444, 8732

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8507, 9444, 8732

Auto

19.5 39%

Teleop

19.1 38%

Endgame

11.1 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score63.5pts

Blue projected score54.5pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.9
Score range: 39–79
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 127 vs event baseline 89.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

253.9Season APEX174.7

21Auto19.5

19.8Teleop19.1

21.4Endgame11.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	21
teleop	14	17
endgame	11	6
foul	0	40
total	43	84

Result

Final score

43 – 84

Prediction missed · off by 25 pts

Match videos

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