Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

134.87 – 55.47

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

166 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 20.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 489.6 ±9.8

457⚙️ The Grease Monkeys ⚙️

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 48.5Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3735VorTX

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 52.65Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9140The Robobots

Season APEX 237.1Event APEX 33.72Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 209.3 ±11

10312ByteForce

Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 19.48Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8114Rocketeers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 16.52Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8088Bionic Panthers

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 19.47Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 457, 3735, 9140

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 457, 3735, 9140

Auto

24.2 19%

Teleop

69.6 55%

Endgame

33.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10312, 8114, 8088

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10312, 8114, 8088

Auto

17.6 33%

Teleop

22.1 42%

Endgame

12.9 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.79 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score134.9pts

Blue projected score55.5pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 79.4
Score range: 39–151
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 212 vs event baseline 88.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

489.6Season APEX209.3

24.2Auto17.6

69.6Teleop22.1

33.7Endgame12.9

4Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	17
teleop	111	29
endgame	29	0
foul	0	0
total	166	46

Result

Final score

166 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 20.3 pts

Match videos

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