Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

147.94 – 76.24

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

144 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 20.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 536.9 ±9.3

5572Rosbots

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 62.56Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10518D.A.D.S

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 10.94Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3035Droid Rage

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 74.44Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 238.4 ±11

6357The Spring Konstant

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 23.47Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4219RED!

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 23.92Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4734The Iron Plainsmen

Season APEX 90Event APEX 28.85Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5572, 10518, 3035

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5572, 10518, 3035

Auto

32.3 22%

Teleop

87.5 61%

Endgame

24.4 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6357, 4219, 4734

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6357, 4219, 4734

Auto

19.0 25%

Teleop

30.7 40%

Endgame

26.4 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score147.9pts

Blue projected score76.2pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 71.7
Score range: 60–164
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 258 vs event baseline 88.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

536.9Season APEX238.4

32.3Auto19

87.5Teleop30.7

24.4Endgame26.4

6Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	21
teleop	100	57
endgame	11	31
foul	5	5
total	144	114

Result

Final score

144 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 20.9 pts

Match videos

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