Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

96.16 – 49.19

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

102 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 15 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 221 ±10.4

3561RoboRaiders

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 44.5Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3679rattlers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 45.28Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9136Rampage

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 6.38Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 166.8 ±11

8507Jagwire Robotics

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX 13.2Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9444Perseverance

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 27.81Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4610BearTecs

Season APEX 22.7Event APEX 8.18Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3561, 3679, 9136

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3561, 3679, 9136

Auto

24.2 27%

Teleop

36.1 40%

Endgame

30.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8507, 9444, 4610

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8507, 9444, 4610

Auto

14.6 32%

Teleop

18.5 40%

Endgame

12.9 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score96.2pts

Blue projected score49.2pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47
Score range: 33–112
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 127 vs event baseline 88.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

221Season APEX166.8

24.2Auto14.6

36.1Teleop18.5

30.1Endgame12.9

31Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	17
teleop	46	8
endgame	24	0
foul	5	0
total	102	25

Result

Final score

102 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 15 pts

Match videos

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