Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

306.18 – 56.47

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

387 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 63.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 583.5 ±8.8

2582PantherBots

Season APEX 211Event APEX 106.39Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11169ERA Delta

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 6.98Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 192.81Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 253.9 ±11.6

6974Zia Robotics

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 17.92Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1745The P-51 Mustangs

Season APEX 104Event APEX 16.77Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3481Bronc Botz

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 21.78Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2582, 11169, 6369

/ 100 compat

Projected

306.2 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2582, 11169, 6369

Auto

44.6 15%

Teleop

186.7 62%

Endgame

70.9 23%

Strengths

· 6369 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6974, 1745, 3481

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.5 pts

~0.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6974, 1745, 3481

Auto

21.6 39%

Teleop

18.0 32%

Endgame

16.2 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score306.2pts

Blue projected score56.5pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 249.7
Score range: 40–322
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 489 vs event baseline 86.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

583.5Season APEX253.9

44.6Auto21.6

186.7Teleop18

70.9Endgame16.2

28Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	21
teleop	211	32
endgame	90	44
foul	20	5
total	387	102

Result

Final score

387 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 63.2 pts

Match videos

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