Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

154.62 – 145.15

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

215 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 34.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 536.9 ±9.3

5572Rosbots

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 64.68Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10518D.A.D.S

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 14.21Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3035Droid Rage

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 75.73Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 489.6 ±9.8

457⚙️ The Grease Monkeys ⚙️

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 52.04Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3735VorTX

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 56.3Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9140The Robobots

Season APEX 237.1Event APEX 36.81Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5572, 10518, 3035

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5572, 10518, 3035

Auto

33.6 22%

Teleop

90.2 60%

Endgame

27.5 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 457, 3735, 9140

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 457, 3735, 9140

Auto

21.9 16%

Teleop

81.7 59%

Endgame

35.6 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score154.6pts

Blue projected score145.2pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.5
Score range: 128–172
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 368 vs event baseline 93.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

536.9Season APEX489.6

33.6Auto21.9

90.2Teleop81.7

27.5Endgame35.6

0Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	34
teleop	126	83
endgame	63	31
foul	5	5
total	215	153

Result

Final score

215 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 34.1 pts

Match videos

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