Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

145.43 – 94.05

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

142 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 10.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 489.6 ±9.8

457⚙️ The Grease Monkeys ⚙️

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 52.17Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3735VorTX

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 56.37Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9140The Robobots

Season APEX 237.1Event APEX 36.89Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 221 ±10.4

3561RoboRaiders

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 43.21Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3679rattlers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 44.11Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9136Rampage

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 6.73Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 457, 3735, 9140

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 457, 3735, 9140

Auto

22.8 16%

Teleop

77.6 56%

Endgame

38.3 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3561, 3679, 9136

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3561, 3679, 9136

Auto

24.5 28%

Teleop

35.2 41%

Endgame

27.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.64 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score145.4pts

Blue projected score94.1pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51.4
Score range: 77–162
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 218 vs event baseline 93.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

489.6Season APEX221

22.8Auto24.5

77.6Teleop35.2

38.3Endgame27.2

11Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	24
teleop	108	22
endgame	18	30
foul	0	0
total	142	76

Result

Final score

142 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 10.7 pts

Match videos

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