Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
141.99 – 45.97
77%23%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
169 – 54
Prediction correct · off by 17.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 489.6 ±9.8
Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 50.99Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 55.17Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 237.1Event APEX 35.83Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 166.8 ±11
Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 26.82Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 77.6Event APEX 13.19Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 22.7Event APEX 5.96Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 457, 3735, 9140
81
/ 100 compatProjected
142 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 457, 3735, 9140
Auto
23.3 17%
Teleop
79.0 58%
Endgame
32.8 24%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 29%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9444, 8507, 4610
39
/ 100 compatProjected
46 pts
~0.7 RP (district)
Teams: 9444, 8507, 4610
Auto
14.9 37%
Teleop
14.9 37%
Endgame
10.1 25%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 29%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.87 · Blue 0.68
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score142pts
Blue projected score46pts
Red win probability77%
Event bonus sample178alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 29%, blue 18%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 96
- Score range
- 30–158
- Upset likelihood
- 23%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
489.6Season APEX166.8
23.3Auto14.9
79Teleop14.9
32.8Endgame10.1
8Consistency38
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 21 | 21 |
| teleop | 70 | 16 |
| endgame | 73 | 17 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 169 | 54 |
Result
Final score
169 – 54
Prediction correct · off by 17.5 pts
Match videos
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