Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

50.03 – 24.66

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

101 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 26.7 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 401.8 ±9.8

3481Bronc Botz

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 8.29Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8507Jagwire Robotics

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX 8.29Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2582PantherBots

Season APEX 211Event APEX 33.45Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 161.2 ±10.4

9444Perseverance

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 8.29Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2969Aftermath

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 5.23Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10518D.A.D.S

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 11.14Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3481, 8507, 2582

/ 100 compat

Projected

50 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3481, 8507, 2582

Auto

12.5 26%

Teleop

21.7 45%

Endgame

14.5 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9444, 2969, 10518

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9444, 2969, 10518

Auto

8.0 37%

Teleop

11.5 53%

Endgame

2.3 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score50pts

Blue projected score24.7pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.4
Score range: 14–61
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 128 vs event baseline 59.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

401.8Season APEX161.2

12.5Auto8

21.7Teleop11.5

14.5Endgame2.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	10
teleop	44	15
endgame	22	2
foul	0	0
total	101	27

Result

Final score

101 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 26.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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