Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

211.35 – 62.2

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

233 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 23.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 415.6 ±10

5726RHUMBOTZ

Season APEX 24.8Event APEX 10.97Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8507Jagwire Robotics

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX 11.8Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 188.58Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 156.9 ±11.6

3679rattlers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 44.24Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11309Gear Owls

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX 0.3Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10312ByteForce

Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 17.66Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5726, 8507, 6369

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5726, 8507, 6369

Auto

35.6 18%

Teleop

118.0 58%

Endgame

48.6 24%

Strengths

· 6369 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3679, 11309, 10312

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.2 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3679, 11309, 10312

Auto

15.5 26%

Teleop

28.5 48%

Endgame

15.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.07 · Blue 0.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score211.4pts

Blue projected score62.2pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 149.1
Score range: 47–226
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 320 vs event baseline 84.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

415.6Season APEX156.9

35.6Auto15.5

118Teleop28.5

48.6Endgame15.8

46Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	18
teleop	134	45
endgame	39	24
foul	5	0
total	233	87

Result

Final score

233 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 23.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree