Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

57.08 – 49.75

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 88

Prediction missed · off by 31.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 302 ±11

1745The P-51 Mustangs

Season APEX 104Event APEX 15.43Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3481Bronc Botz

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 18.89Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6357The Spring Konstant

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 22.76Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 172 ±11.7

2657Team Thundercats

Season APEX 35.7Event APEX 5.21Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9136Rampage

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 2.73Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3561RoboRaiders

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 41.81Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1745, 3481, 6357

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1745, 3481, 6357

Auto

16.7 31%

Teleop

17.0 31%

Endgame

20.8 38%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2657, 9136, 3561

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2657, 9136, 3561

Auto

18.2 39%

Teleop

12.5 27%

Endgame

15.5 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score57.1pts

Blue projected score49.8pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.3
Score range: 35–72
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 169 vs event baseline 84.3.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

302Season APEX172

16.7Auto18.2

17Teleop12.5

20.8Endgame15.5

0Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	26
teleop	30	17
endgame	23	25
foul	0	20
total	81	88

Result

Final score

81 – 88

Prediction missed · off by 31.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree