Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

50.11 – 19.83

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

69 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 14.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 179.9 ±11

11169ERA Delta

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 3.21Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4734The Iron Plainsmen

Season APEX 90Event APEX 29.34Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8732Trinity Force

Season APEX 30.6Event APEX 17.56Rank 15Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 113.9 ±13.3

4610BearTecs

Season APEX 22.7Event APEX 8.73Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9034The Space Dolphins

Season APEX 40.6Event APEX 10.35Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9311Warhorse Robotics

Season APEX 50.6Event APEX 0.75Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11169, 4734, 8732

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11169, 4734, 8732

Auto

19.8 44%

Teleop

17.7 40%

Endgame

7.0 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4610, 9034, 9311

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4610, 9034, 9311

Auto

8.5 65%

Teleop

-0.2 0%

Endgame

4.7 36%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score50.1pts

Blue projected score19.8pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 13%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.3
Score range: 5–65
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 99 vs event baseline 84.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

179.9Season APEX113.9

19.8Auto8.5

17.7Teleop-0.2

7Endgame4.7

49Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	13
teleop	10	15
endgame	38	2
foul	5	0
total	69	30

Result

Final score

69 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 14.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree