Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

119.78 – 30.28

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

17 – 28

Prediction missed · off by 52.5 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 152.6 ±12.2

3545Bots in Blue

Season APEX 39.5Event APEX -Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11309Gear Owls

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX 23.14Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6357The Spring Konstant

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 85.71Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 147.5 ±14.9

9658Camber

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 4Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9419VULCAN

Season APEX 15.9Event APEX 3.14Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3561RoboRaiders

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 23.14Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3545, 11309, 6357

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3545, 11309, 6357

Auto

23.6 20%

Teleop

65.5 55%

Endgame

30.8 26%

Strengths

· 6357 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9658, 9419, 3561

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9658, 9419, 3561

Auto

9.1 30%

Teleop

13.1 43%

Endgame

8.0 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 0.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score119.8pts

Blue projected score30.3pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 12%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 89.5
Score range: 18–132
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 45 vs event baseline 65.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

152.6Season APEX147.5

20.3Auto9.1

60Teleop13.1

28.6Endgame8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	6
teleop	7	7
endgame	6	15
foul	0	0
total	17	28

Result

Final score

17 – 28

Prediction missed · off by 52.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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