Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

85.88 – 62.92

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

71 – 131

Prediction missed · off by 41.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 165.2 ±14.4

4219RED!

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 23.94Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6155ElektraBots

Season APEX 16.9Event APEX 16.18Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3679rattlers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 45.76Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 162.1 ±11.6

3561RoboRaiders

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 35.22Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10312ByteForce

Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 13.04Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6974Zia Robotics

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 14.66Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4219, 6155, 3679

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4219, 6155, 3679

Auto

20.5 24%

Teleop

39.8 47%

Endgame

24.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3561, 10312, 6974

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3561, 10312, 6974

Auto

21.1 36%

Teleop

24.5 42%

Endgame

12.7 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score85.9pts

Blue projected score62.9pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23
Score range: 48–101
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 202 vs event baseline 84.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

165.2Season APEX162.1

20.5Auto21.1

39.8Teleop24.5

24.4Endgame12.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	24
teleop	34	75
endgame	21	32
foul	0	0
total	71	131

Result

Final score

71 – 131

Prediction missed · off by 41.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree