Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

64.97 – 58.76

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

103 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 29.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 196.9 ±11

3561RoboRaiders

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 33.32Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6357The Spring Konstant

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 16.86Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8732Trinity Force

Season APEX 30.6Event APEX 14.79Rank 15Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 266 ±11.7

8507Jagwire Robotics

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX 10.29Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4717Westerner Robotics

Season APEX 53.3Event APEX 3.48Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

457⚙️ The Grease Monkeys ⚙️

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 44.99Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3561, 6357, 8732

/ 100 compat

Projected

65 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3561, 6357, 8732

Auto

19.7 31%

Teleop

25.8 41%

Endgame

17.1 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8507, 4717, 457

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8507, 4717, 457

Auto

14.2 24%

Teleop

26.9 46%

Endgame

17.1 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score65pts

Blue projected score58.8pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.2
Score range: 44–80
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 182 vs event baseline 82.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

196.9Season APEX266

19.7Auto14.2

25.8Teleop26.9

17.1Endgame17.1

0Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	26
teleop	37	42
endgame	33	6
foul	15	5
total	103	79

Result

Final score

103 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 29.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree