Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

196.66 – 29.74

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

232 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 28.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 425.8 ±10.8

11169ERA Delta

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 4.26Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 190.23Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4717Westerner Robotics

Season APEX 53.3Event APEX 2.17Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.5 ±12.8

3481Bronc Botz

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 20.29Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9311Warhorse Robotics

Season APEX 50.6Event APEX 1.05Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2657Team Thundercats

Season APEX 35.7Event APEX 8.4Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11169, 6369, 4717

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11169, 6369, 4717

Auto

36.2 19%

Teleop

110.0 59%

Endgame

41.5 22%

Strengths

· 6369 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3481, 9311, 2657

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.7 pts

~0.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3481, 9311, 2657

Auto

17.2 70%

Teleop

0.0 0%

Endgame

7.5 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.03 · Blue 0.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score196.7pts

Blue projected score29.7pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 166.9
Score range: 15–212
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 283 vs event baseline 85.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

425.8Season APEX199.5

36.2Auto17.2

110Teleop0

41.5Endgame7.5

113Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	26
teleop	146	24
endgame	51	1
foul	0	0
total	232	51

Result

Final score

232 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 28.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree