Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

35.41 – 36.33

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

36 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 1.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 108.7 ±15.8

4717Westerner Robotics

Season APEX 53.3Event APEX 5.79Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9419VULCAN

Season APEX 15.9Event APEX 6.55Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3545Bots in Blue

Season APEX 39.5Event APEX 23.07Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 180.8 ±11

8114Rocketeers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 11.21Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4610BearTecs

Season APEX 22.7Event APEX 14.61Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8507Jagwire Robotics

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX 10.51Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4717, 9419, 3545

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4717, 9419, 3545

Auto

11.6 33%

Teleop

12.7 36%

Endgame

10.7 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8114, 4610, 8507

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8114, 4610, 8507

Auto

8.6 29%

Teleop

8.0 27%

Endgame

12.8 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score35.4pts

Blue projected score36.3pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 10%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.9
Score range: 20–51
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 75 vs event baseline 81.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

108.7Season APEX180.8

11.6Auto8.6

12.7Teleop8

10.7Endgame12.8

77Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	13
teleop	12	11
endgame	7	15
foul	0	0
total	36	39

Result

Final score

36 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 1.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree