Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

17.47 – 138.57

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

10 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 16.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 135.2 ±12.2

9311Warhorse Robotics

Season APEX 50.6Event APEX 7.58Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10518D.A.D.S

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 7.81Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11309Gear Owls

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX 2.08Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 488.6 ±10.5

457⚙️ The Grease Monkeys ⚙️

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 50.71Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1745The P-51 Mustangs

Season APEX 104Event APEX 18.13Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3035Droid Rage

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 69.73Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9311, 10518, 11309

/ 100 compat

Projected

17.5 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9311, 10518, 11309

Auto

9.5 85%

Teleop

-0.6 0%

Endgame

2.3 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 457, 1745, 3035

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 457, 1745, 3035

Auto

25.3 18%

Teleop

80.6 59%

Endgame

31.3 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.54 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score17.5pts

Blue projected score138.6pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 14%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -121.1
Score range: 2–154
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 123 vs event baseline 82.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

135.2Season APEX488.6

9.5Auto25.3

-0.6Teleop80.6

2.3Endgame31.3

28Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	21
teleop	4	50
endgame	0	27
foul	0	15
total	10	113

Result

Final score

10 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 16.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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